25 Aug Bleacher Report’s Expert Consensus Week 13 NFL Picks
Can this get any simpler? Based on the way Bleacher Report NFL analysts are currently faring against the spread this season, it surely can not get much tougher.
Picking every game, Brent Sobleski, Brad Gagnon and Gary Davenport had yet another streak in Week 12, falling their album that is combined to 251-259-18. Individually and as a crew, here’s the harm through 12 months (a week’s records in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus picks: 83-87-6 (7-8)
Together with December looming, we requested longtime sports gambling advisor Dave Tuley if there could be some light at the end of the tube to the betting public or when the sportsbooks will continue to benefit from larger samples late in the summer season.
We were given a hope, but not sufficient to get by tuley.
“There was a period under a dozen years back where I had a lot of years in a row where I simply killed it the next half of this year and in December,” he said. “At the time, I felt like it was just the time of year once the good teams were overrated and the terrible teams were underrated, and with parity exactly what it was, the underdogs were performing a whole lot better at the time.”
But Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have struck consistently significant advantages . “As much as bettors want to think that we are becoming smarter the more we see these teams play,” he said,”clearly the oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are, and they are adjusting and making it tough also.”
However, he still believes it’s possible to pick out lines that were exaggerated by streaks and/or slumps. In particular, he pointed in the 7.5-point spread in favor of the New Orleans Saints in a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that line, oddsmakers are suggesting the Saints would be favored by as many as 13 or 14 points if this game were at New Orleans, which does appear high considering that the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning streak.
“That’s [a manifestation of] how the Saints have been playing,” Tuley said. “For the books to balance their actions, they must place it in the number.”
It is something to remember as we enter this 2018 season’s last month. It might not save your entire year as a bettor, but any guidance helps, if you’ve been after us all year.
Here’s what Gagnon Davenport and Sobleski are currently thinking heading into the initial slate in two or more months.
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